Well, the Republican Party got the best situation that they could have hoped for in the recent Democratic primaries. Kerry has pretty much cinched the nomination early, barring serious mishap, but not locked it up so tight as to let him sit on his cash. Edwards ensured that he won't get the kind of bounce that lets him challenge Kerry until the primaries get to the west coast by losing Oklahoma to Wes "The Advocate" Clark, and Dean is about to make the financiers of Howard The Duck feel like they got a good return on their investment. Kerry seems like a stronger general election candidate than The Angry One. having broader appeal (e.g. can attract peope who DIDN'T participate in WTO riots to his rallies), more percieved experience, a military background, and an abillity to calm Democratic fears that their nominee will spontaneously combust when criticized. So why is this a good thing for the Republicans?
Kerry, upon officially getting the nomination, will no longer be able to bask in comparisons to Dean, a man so on edge he appeared to threaten Tim Russert on Meet The Press this Sunday, warning him that he hits back at people who go after him (side note: the transcript doesn't convey the tone of the interview at all. Try to see it, if you still care about this guy). Kerry's surge is based on the scramble to find an acceptable alternative to what is going to be viewed as one of the all time great implosions in American politics. This is not a guy who seized front runner status so much backed into it after he lost it in the first place. Before his win in Iowa I had never seen someone lose momentum while giving a victory speech. Oh, wait. Walter Mondale telling the Democratic National Convention that he promised to raise our taxes. My mistake, but you get the point.
He doesn't bring anything to the table so much as he holds up a mirror to the other candidates electoral failings. Edwards seems so inexperienced next to Kerry that he actually seems to sever his bonds with gravity and start floating away on marshmellow clouds. Kerry looks like King Friday next to Edward's Daniel Tiger. Dean makes Kerry's narcoleptic speeches as comforting as a night light and a glass of water. One look at the Junior Senator from Hyannisport and Democrats have to stop the wishful thinking that Clark has any idea what the hell is going on in this election.
Like some strange vampire, however, Kerry doesn't seem to reflect anything in a general election match-up. He offers no significant background differences with Bush, being rich, privillaged, and the President's Yale fraternity brother to boot. He offers no stark issue contrasts with Bush, just a mild exhortation to sort of clean things up around the edges. He's voted for almost every free trade agreement he's ever seen, which hurts his potential attack on the one area of the Bush administrations economic results that aren't rocketing upwards, jobs. He called No Child Left Behind "ground breaking legislation" when he voted for it. He voted for the resolution to invade Iraq. Having no issues, he's now trying to rely on the same Democratic staples of the last 15 years: tax "The Rich," cower before Labor leadership (which is not the same as it's working, middleclass membership), claim Republicans will eat your babies, starve your grandparents, and burn crosses in your yard. It just doesn't work, and he seems as if he knows it. Seeing an oppertunity with the supposed Haliburton favoritism on Iraqi rebuilding contracts, he has now started banging the drum on that old bogie man Special Interests. Bad idea, John.
AP just released a story on Kerry stopping a federal funds loophole that let AIG Insurance Group siphon off millions from Boston's "Big Dig" highway project. The company contributed "at least $30,000 to a tax-exempt group Kerry used to set up his presidential campaign. Company executives donated $18,000 to his Senate and presidential campaigns (John Solomon, AP writer)."
This is the down side of all that "experience" that differentiates him from his Democratic rivals.
More from the story:
In September 2001, Kerry disclosed to the Senate ethics office that AIG had paid an estimated $540 in travel expenses to cover his costs for a speech in Burlington, Vt.
A few months later in December 2001, several AIG executives gave maximum $1,000 donations to Kerry's Senate campaign on the same day. The donations totaled $9,700 and were followed by several thousand dollars more over the next two years.
The next spring, AIG donated $10,000 to a new tax-exempt group Kerry formed, the Citizen Soldier Fund, to lay groundwork for his presidential campaign. Later in 2002, AIG gave two more donations of $10,000 each to the same group, making it one of the largest corporate donors to Kerry's group.
The insurer wasn't the only company connected to the Big Dig to donate to Kerry's new group. Two construction companies on the project -- Modern Continental Group and Jay Cashman Construction -- each donated $25,000, IRS records show.
This is more of an indicator than a real scandal. It just demonstrates how Kerry's percieved strength in the primaries don't add up to strength in November. But the importance of the Kerry win lies in the assurance that the DNC leadership will not be shaken up and the Democrats will probably miss their wake-up call. Terry McAuliffe keeps his chairmanship and, in turn, keeps Hillary's 2008 machine in tact. I don't think she can win. Core strategy will remain the same, like baby eating claims, etc., and the Democrats will begin to resemble one of those sports playoff teams that keep trying to tweak things at the margins because they can't summon enough sense and business courage to start the rebuilding process. A Dean candidacy would have given them the perfect excuse to strip it all down and start over, focusing on candidates like Baltimore's Mayor Martin O'Mally and re-examining their approaches to core constituencies. Instead, like the 80's Cleveland Browns, they just keep trotting out various versions of Bernie Kosar and wonder why they can't make it to the Super Bowl.
